Brexit's Winners and Losers. An Empirical Analysis of Economic Effects of Deglobalisation on the Financial Services Industry

Bachelor Thesis from the year 2020 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 1,0, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), language: English, abstract: This paper aims to analyse the impact of a no-deal Brexit regarding the Financial Services Industry. Given the significant global integration of the UK’s financial services industry as the largest exporter and the host of the world’s leading centre of financial services, the gained observations and experiences from the example of Brexit shed greater light on determining the consequences of deglobalisation on the financial services industry. It will be assumed that no further agreements regarding Financial Services will be reached between the UK and the EU. Further, the impact will be analysed solely for the industries of the two directly involved parties, thus the EU and the UK. The UK will be considered as the exporting nation and the focus will be laid on UK-based financial services firms, which as a whole represent the UK’s financial services industry. The remainder of this paper is structured as follows: after an initial introduction to Brexit and the development of the relationship negotiation; in the third section, the status quo of the financial services industry ante Brexit will be depicted. In this regard, the legal framework will be emphasised, and the mutual reliance will be identified. In order to forecast the future situation of the financial services industry after the transition period, the legal relationship under WTO terms will be thematised in the fourth section. Within this section, a focus will be laid on the possible legal paths of the provision of financial services. Based on the derived legal aspects and considering the political influences in the absence of any relationship, in the fifth section, a post transition period outlook for the financial services industry will be given.