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Why You Ignore the Odds and Trust the Story Instead

Kilner E: Why You Ignore the Odds and
Trust the Story Instead

Base Rate Neglect

Beyond Progress series

In a world where working practices are increasingly transient and technological advancement is moving at breakneck pace, the ability to adapt and learn quickly has never been more important. This ability is known as learning agility. It is about having the motivation to rapidly learn from experience and to modify, experiment and apply that learning to meet a need, often in an unfamiliar situation or context. It requires the mind and skillsets to engage with change, take risk and adapt to solve problems creatively and quickly. This book uses the authors' Intero Model, which draws on learning theory, neuroscience and psychology, to explain this vital workplace skill to those looking to cultivate it themselves and leaders who want to develop it in their teams. Full of practical guidance, this book is an essential resource on the most important workplace skill of the day. Beyond Progress is a series about the skills that shape how you work, lead and grow. As jobs change and careers become less predictable, human skills like focus, adaptability and resilience matter more than ever. Straightforward and practical, these books help you build the confidence and judgment to handle anything work throws at you, collaborate seamlessly with others and keep growing in your career, no matter how the workplace evolves.

Unlearn Habits, Absorb Information and Perform in Ever-Changing Environments

Learning Agility

Half your newsfeed says you're hopelessly behind on AI. The other half says it's a sham. Both are engineered to make you click - and both lead to the same place: paralysis. Because what passes for AI expertise right now is mostly a temporary information advantage masquerading as expertise. *Fair Game* is the way out. Rob Collie knows that paralysis firsthand. As CEO of a data consulting firm, he watched AI threaten to upend the very business he'd spent a decade building. When fear finally drove him to dig in, what he discovered was unexpected: AI success isn't really about AI. It's about data - and the software around it. Problems he's been solving for thirty years. This book is the distillation of what Collie and his team learned building real AI solutions for real businesses - not theorizing from a stage. *Fair Game* walks you through how AI systems actually work, not at the PhD level, and not at the hand-wavy keynote level, but at the Goldilocks level where real decisions get made. You'll learn: - A five-part recipe for AI success you can apply to any project - Why successful AI is always custom AI - and why "custom" is less scary than it sounds - How to evaluate any AI proposal, hire the right team, and know when you're being sold snake oil You'll understand everything from how LLMs actually work to why your proprietary business knowledge is the one thing AI can't get on its own - all without jargon and using analogies you'll actually remember. Each chapter ends with a practical cheatsheet you can bring to your next meeting. By the time you've finished, the five-part recipe won't feel like a framework. It'll feel like common sense. You don't need to become an engineer. You need to become an architect - someone who knows what to build, what to demand, and what to call BS on. Because AI isn't out of reach. It's fair game.

Customizing AI to Your Business Is Easier Than You Think

Fair Game

A practical method, backed by peer-reviewed research, for reimagining work to create your most distinctive, creative, energetic, and relatable professional self.In far too many organizations, the idea of bringing your 'full self' to the job is a liability.Emotion beyond enthusiasm for the task at hand is deemed unprofessional. Personal identity must be compressed into a carefully curated bio: relatable yet inoffensive.When people are conditioned to flatten the full social and emotional complexities of themselves, spirits dull and progress stalls, in life and in the workplace.But for a growing number of people, especially younger generations, this form of workplace culture no longer works. Surveys show that fewer individuals are willing to sacrifice their time and quality of life for a career, let alone an organization. With an increased focus on purpose, meaning, and mental health, many refuse to scrub their emotions, or the full range of their identities, to keep their professional lives separate.At the same time, in more progressive settings, the encouragement to bring people's full selves to work has sometimes unleashed more authenticity and personal revelation than managers and teams know how to handle.So how do we get it right?Lively and accessible, Human Mode features vibrant stories, expert insights, evidence-based techniques, and 'ah-ha' takeaways you can use immediately.Discover how to engage your inherent superpower - being immensely human - to unlock progress, connection, and achievement in your working life.

Unlock Your Unique Edge and Transform Your World of Work

Human Mode

Strategies for finding big, long-lasting success.We're drawn to stories of people who succeed against the odds. But what if those stories aren't just inspiring? What if they reveal a strategy?In Your Life Needs a Strategy, Martin Reeves, Christian Stadler, Julia Hautz, and Hamad Buamim argue that extraordinary success is rarely the product of talent or effort alone--and it's never just luck. It comes from knowing how to work with uncertainty: spotting opportunities others miss, experimenting when outcomes are unclear, influencing situations that seem fixed, and creating possibilities that didn't exist before.At the heart of the book is a simple but powerful idea: you can't control the future, but you can shape the conditions that determine your odds. By choosing the right strategy for the environment you're in--and knowing when to shift--you gain leverage over outcomes that once felt random.Success doesn't go to the smartest or the hardest working. It goes to those who understand how success actually happens in complex systems. Your Life Needs a Strategy is a practical guide for anyone who wants to increase their visibility, influence, and impact by thinking more strategically about where to play, how to move, and when to change course.

How to Increase Your Odds of Doing Extraordinary Things

Your Life Needs a Strategy

In a world of tremendous change, uncertainty, and simplistic AI-driven answers, it is easy to look to an uncertain future with anxiety. In The Leader's Oracle, Chief Strategy and Innovation Officer Roopa Unnikrishnan shows that the wisest leaders instead look to the ancient past for inspiration. By channeling the Oracle of Delphi, these leaders ask better questions and challenge their organizations to transform. Offering a provocative lens on the future of strategic leadership, The Leader's Oracle is not just a book about strategy—it is a call for a cultural shift in how we lead, how we think, and how we build organizations. Through this uniquely powerful framework, readers examine and harness the timeless wisdom of the ancients to help their own business and career: <ul><li>operate at the edge of clarity</li><li>interpret patterns and possibilities</li><li>provoke transformation, not comfort </li><li>serve the powerful, but answer to the truth</li><li>protect future-facing wisdom in a reactive world</li></ul> This unique framework on business strategy and leadership explores a critical paradox in today’s corporate environment: in a world obsessed with operational excellence and short-term wins while struggling with historic transformational changes, we often neglect the voices of the long-term thinkers, the strategic questioners, the ones who highlight or introduce ambiguity to force clarity. The Leader's Oracle serves as a call to arms for leaders, board members, and aspiring strategists to embrace their inner Delphic voice—one that cuts through noise, evokes questions, and drives tectonic shifts, not just tactical maneuvers.

Using Ancient Wisdom to Improve Strategy and Decision-Making

The Leader's Oracle

In a world that worships disruption, the most revolutionary thing you can do is hold steady. For more than a decade, Whitney Johnson preached the gospel of disruption. She co-founded the Disruptive Innovation Fund with Clayton Christensen. Disruption is in her company's name. But over time, a pattern emerged: The leaders and organizations coming to her didn't need more disruption. They needed stability, the very thing our culture has trained us to overlook. Drawing on original research with over 300 professionals across industries, Johnson reveals a striking finding: 96 percent of employees want more stability or a balanced approach to change, yet they experience disruption at nearly twice the rate their managers perceive. The result? Burnout, turnover, and organizations that exhaust themselves with motion that never becomes progress. Meanwhile, research shows companies with stable foundations deliver 80 percent higher shareholder returns over a decade than their peers. Johnson's Steady will show you how to build stability within organizations, how to identify and champion the people doing the invisible work of holding things together, and how to cultivate the inner steadiness that lets you be a grounding force for others. For leaders who have leaned into disruption and found themselves exhausted, for those who sense the relentless churn isn't working, Steady offers a framework for something different. And for those who have been doing the stabilizing work all along, this book is a declaration: Your work matters. It has always mattered.

The Power of Stability in a Disrupted World

Steady

Underground Techniques for Influencing Decisions and Winning More Clients

Sales Secrets of a Mind Reader

Radical Curiosity

Mastering Business Analytics

Data Analytics for Strategic Decisions explores how businesses can harness the power of data, technology, and analytics to make strategic decisions that drive growth and innovation. It provides a comprehensive guide to integrating business strategy with data-driven methodologies, offering practical tools and insights for modern organizations.Readers will gain a deep understanding of how to transform data into actionable insights, improving decision-making across marketing, finance, operations, and strategy. The book combines theoretical foundations with real-world applications, including case studies, datasets, and practical exercises. It also addresses emerging topics like AI, predictive analytics, and data governance, ensuring readers are equipped with cutting-edge knowledge and skills.This book is designed for undergraduate and master's students in Business Administration, Business Analytics, and Digital Transformation, as well as professionals seeking to enhance their data-driven decision-making capabilities. It is ideal for courses in Business Analytics, Data Analytics for Business, Business Intelligence, and Digital Transformation.The book includes supplementary materials such as datasets for practical exercises, case studies, and discussion questions, making it suitable for both classroom and online learning environments.

Fundamentals of Business Technology and AI Integration

Data Analytics for Strategic Decisions

Hyper-Helpful Scripts for Every Situation

The Secret Language of Work

A leading psychologist and philosopher challenge the shortcomings of rational choice theory-and propose a new framework for understanding decision-makingFor many decision scientists, their starting point-drawn from economics-is a quantitative formula called rational choice theory, allowing people to calculate and choose the best options. The problem is that this framework assumes an overly simplistic picture of the world, in which different types of values can be quantified and compared, leading to the "most rational" choice. Behavioral economics acknowledges that irrationality is common but still accepts the underlying belief from economics of what a rational decision should look like.In this book, Barry Schwartz and Richard Schuldenfrei offer a different way to think about the choices we make every day. Drawing from economics, psychology, and philosophy-and both inspired by and challenging Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow-they show how the focus on rationality, narrowly understood, fails to fully describe how we think about our decisions, much less help us make better ones. Notably, it overlooks the positive contribution that framing-how we determine what aspects are most important to us-contributes to good decisions. Schwartz and Schuldenfrei argue that our choices should be informed by our individual "constellation of virtues," allowing for a far richer understanding of the decisions we make and helping us to live more integrated and purposeful lives.

Rationality, Ethics, and the Art of Decision-Making

Choose Wisely

Humanity's most spectacular era yet is increasingly within reach.So why are we doing everything we can to hold it back?The bestselling author of The Rational Optimist delivers a daring vision of the future - one that is potentially dazzling, but only if we stop sleepwalking into self-inflicted decline.We're on the brink of a truly spectacular explosion of productivity and prosperity, argues Matt Ridley, thanks to a combination of artificial intelligence, material science and genomic knowledge that is unprecedented in its scope and implications. With characteristic wit and ferocity, he confronts the irrational pessimism that dominates public discourse and examines the bureaucratic bloat, regulatory overreach, ideological superstition and crony capitalism that stand in the way.Optimistic in conclusion but unsparing in its analysis, The Flourishing is a rousing call to achieve and innovate by refusing to settle for a merely adequate future when a magnificent one is within reach.

The Rational Pessimist

Why You Ignore the Odds and Trust the Story Instead

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