Ahead of the Cycle

The most important market moves often begin before the economic story changes.

Bond yields can turn while inflation is still elevated. Credit can begin deteriorating while economic data still looks resilient. The yield curve can start pricing a different future months before that future becomes visible in the headlines. By the time the new narrative feels obvious, markets may already have moved on.

Ahead of the Cycle is about understanding that gap.

Rather than trying to predict the next recession, rate cut or market bottom, this book develops a framework for recognizing when the forces supporting the current market regime are beginning to change. It looks beyond isolated indicators and examines how yield curves, real yields, credit spreads, refinancing conditions and market pricing interact across the economic cycle.

The central question is deceptively simple: What does the market believe today-and what would have to change for that belief to become wrong?

Through this lens, an inverted yield curve becomes more than a recession signal. Falling yields can mean very different things depending on what is happening beneath them. Tight credit spreads can represent genuine resilience or leave investors with almost no margin for deterioration. High real yields can appear manageable until refinancing gradually transmits them through corporate balance sheets and the broader economy.

The book then goes one step further. It explores the counter-cycle: the period when the prevailing economic narrative still describes the present, but markets begin positioning for what comes next. It examines false turns, changing market reactions, confirmation across independent signals and the crucial difference between correctly forecasting an economic outcome and finding an investment that has not already priced it.

Finally, Ahead of the Cycle turns those signals into a practical approach to positioning. Instead of relying on one enormous macro call, the framework focuses on probabilities, asymmetry and gradually adjusting exposure as evidence accumulates.

For investors interested in bonds, fixed income, macro investing, interest rates and economic cycles, this book offers a way to think beyond the latest data release and understand the transition underneath it.

Because the real opportunity is rarely knowing what everyone else already knows. It is recognizing when the market has started looking beyond it.