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Johnson W: Advanced Risk Metrics

Advanced Risk Metrics

Quantitative Approaches to Financial Risk Management

This book is a multi-stage learning resource that takes readers from basic data handling and software orientation to statistical analysis and financial applications using MS Excel and R. Through a gradual, step-by-step approach, it equips readers with the essential skills needed to understand, analyse, and interpret data in today's data-driven world.Using clear illustrations, the book enables readers to organise and manage data, perform analytical computations, create meaningful visualisations, and draw conclusions. It introduces core concepts in research, data analysis, and economic and financial decision-making, demonstrating their relevance in academic, professional, and everyday contexts. This book enables readers to:<ul> <li>Work confidently with MS Excel and R for efficient data handling and analysis</li> <li>Present and visualise data using charts, tables, and Pivot Tables</li> <li>Apply statistical techniques such as descriptive statistics, correlation, regression, and hypothesis testing</li> <li>Perform financial analysis using concepts such as time value of money, compounding, NPV, IRR, and EMI calculations</li> </ul>By combining concepts with practical implementation, the book provides a strong foundation in computational techniques essential for modern data analysis.This revised third edition introduces two new chapters on R for data analysis, complementing the book's Excel-based approach, making it an invaluable resource for beginners and students of economics, commerce, management, and the social sciences. This book will be useful for courses in econometrics, financial technology, and applied economics, as it equips readers with the analytical and computational skills required for academic excellence and professional success.

Mastering MS Excel and R

Basic Computational Techniques for Data Analysis

HBR's 10 Must Reads

Too many good leaders make bad decisions. Learn how to make better ones.If you read nothing else on decision-making, read this book. We've chosen a new selection of current and classic Harvard Business Review articles that will help you gather the data you need, identify cognitive traps that lead you astray, and turn overthinking into action.This book will inspire you to: <ul><li>Balance human judgment with AI insights</li><li>Identify the true owner of every decision</li><li>Step outside of organizational echo chambers</li><li>Overcome the high cost of inconsistent decision-making</li><li>Know when to trust your gut</li><li>Decide and move forward with confidence</li></ul>This collection of articles includes "How to Tackle Your Toughest Decisions," by Joseph L. Badaracco; "The Hidden Traps in Decision Making," by John S. Hammond, Raplh L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa; "Stop Overthinking and Start Trusting Your Gut," by Melody Wilding; "Fooled by Experience," by Emre Soyer and Robin M. Hogarth; "What Makes Strategic Decisions Different," by Phil Rosenzweig; "Noise: How to Overcome the High, Hidden Cost of Inconsistent Decision Making," by Daniel Kahneman, Andrew M. Rosenfield, Linnea Gandhi, and Tom Blaser; "The Value of Human Decision-Making in the Age of AI," by Martin Reeves, Mihnea Moldoveanu, and Adam Job; "Where Data-Driven Decision-Making Can Go Wrong," by Michael Luca and Amy C. Edmondson; "Making Better Decisions with Less Data," by Tanya Menon and Leigh Thompson; "Who Has the D?: How Clear Decision Roles Enhance Organizational Performance," by Paul Rogers and Marcia W. Blenko; "Beyond the Echo Chamber," by Alex "Sandy" Pentland; "Five Questions to Help Your Team Make Better Decisions," by Steven Morris; "Conquering a Culture of Indecision," by Ram Charan; and "Drive Innovation with Better Decision-Making," by Linda A. Hill, Emily Tedards, and Taran Swan.HBR's 10 Must Reads are definitive collections of classic ideas, practical advice, and essential thinking from the pages of Harvard Business Review. Exploring topics like disruptive innovation, emotional intelligence, and new technology in our ever-evolving world, these books empower any leader to make bold decisions and inspire others.This Updated and Expanded edition features new, breakthrough articles, additional short-form pieces, and a detailed discussion guide to give you and your team the tools you need for sustained success.

HBR's 10 Must Reads on Decision-Making, Updated and Expanded (featuring "The Irreplaceable Value of Human Decision-Making in the Age of AI" by Martin Reeves, Mihnea Moldoveanu, and Adam Job)

Cyber risk quantification (CRQ) is the practice of measuring cybersecurity risk using numbers —not colors or guesswork. Instead of labeling risks "high," "medium," or "low," CRQ uses probabilities, ranges, and impact estimates to help organizations make better, data-informed decisions about risk.

In a world where ransomware gangs operate like small businesses, every core function of an organization is digital, and Boards and regulators are demanding meaningful, defensible risk metrics, CRQ has never been more relevant than now. And thanks to AI, it’s about to scale fast.

At the same time, CRQ is often misunderstood as expensive, technical, or just "voodoo math." People assume you need a stats degree, six-figure software, or a room full of analysts. This book is here to prove otherwise.

 

From Heatmaps to Histograms is a hands-on, plain-English guide written by a seasoned practitioner who’s built CRQ programs at top global companies. It’s packed with step-by-step instructions, practical tips, templates, shortcuts, AI prompts, and plenty of myth-busting to take you from CRQ skeptic to CRQ champion—even if you’ve never cracked open a statistics book.

 

All techniques in this book can be performed in Excel or Google Sheets—no coding required. But for readers who want to go further, you’ll find dozens of GenAI prompts that help you generate risk scenarios, clean messy data, or even "vibe-code" your way through a Monte Carlo simulation in Python or R. You'll also get guidance on when to not use AI, how to spot hallucinations, and how to integrate it responsibly into your risk practice.

 

CRQ is no longer optional. This is your roadmap for making it work—cheaply, ethically, and effectively.

 

What You Will Learn:

A beginner-friendly introduction to the statistical foundations of CRQ, including Monte Carlo simulations, credible intervals, Bayesian reasoning, and simple methods for summarizing uncertainty—without requiring a math or coding background

Gather, vet, and work with data—even when it’s scarce, messy, or missing

Perform full end-to-end quantitative risk assessments using only Excel or Google Sheets

Harness the power of generative AI to supercharge risk analysis workflows

Apply CRQ and GenAI responsibly and ethically, with clear guidance on common pitfalls, misuse scenarios, and ensure transparency, fairness, and trustworthiness in your analysis and reporting




 

Who This Book Is For

Beginner/intermediate in the cyber/technology risk management field

Cyber risk quantification (CRQ) is the practice of measuring cybersecurity risk using numbers —not colors or guesswork. Instead of labeling risks “high,” “medium,” or “low,” CRQ uses probabilities, ranges, and impact estimates to help organizations make better, data-informed decisions about risk.In a world where ransomware gangs operate like small businesses, every core function of an organization is digital, and Boards and regulators are demanding meaningful, defensible risk metrics, CRQ has never been more relevant than now. And thanks to AI, it’s about to scale fast.At the same time, CRQ is often misunderstood as expensive, technical, or just “voodoo math.” People assume you need a stats degree, six-figure software, or a room full of analysts. This book is here to prove otherwise.&nbsp;From Heatmaps to Histograms
 is a hands-on, plain-English guide written by a seasoned practitioner who’s built CRQ programs at top global companies. It’s packed with step-by-step instructions, practical tips, templates, shortcuts, AI prompts, and plenty of myth-busting to take you from CRQ skeptic to CRQ champion—even if you’ve never cracked open a statistics book.
 &nbsp;
 All techniques in this book can be performed in Excel or Google Sheets—no coding required. But for readers who want to go further, you’ll find dozens of GenAI prompts that help you generate risk scenarios, clean messy data, or even “vibe-code” your way through a Monte Carlo simulation in Python or R. You'll also get guidance on when to 
 not
 use AI, how to spot hallucinations, and how to integrate it responsibly into your risk practice.
 &nbsp;CRQ is no longer optional. This is your roadmap for making it work—cheaply, ethically, and effectively.&nbsp;What You Will Learn:<ul><li>A beginner-friendly introduction to the statistical foundations of CRQ, including Monte Carlo simulations, credible intervals, Bayesian reasoning, and simple methods for summarizing uncertainty—without requiring a math or coding background</li><li>Gather, vet, and work with data—even when it’s scarce, messy, or missing</li><li>Perform full end-to-end quantitative risk assessments using only Excel or Google Sheets</li><li>Harness the power of generative AI to supercharge risk analysis workflows</li><li>Apply CRQ and GenAI responsibly and ethically, with clear guidance on common pitfalls, misuse scenarios, and ensure transparency, fairness, and trustworthiness in your analysis and reporting</li></ul>&nbsp;Who This Book Is ForBeginner/intermediate in the cyber/technology risk management field&nbsp;

A Practical Guide to Cyber Risk Quantification

From Heatmaps to Histograms

Elements in Quantitative Finance

The Aggregation Problem

The Global Geography of Long-Term Projected Macroeconomic Damages from Chronic Physical Risk

How we identify, assess and exercise judgement in decisions big and small - and how to do it better

Making Better Choices

Judgement at Work

Sustainable Finance

The investment landscape is undergoing a profound transformation, driven by technological advancements, a growing emphasis on sustainability, and democratization processes that enable private investors to participate in private markets—as angel investors, seed funders, and Limited Partners in private market funds.
 At the same time, a generational shift is reshaping the industry, referred to as The Great Wealth Transfer. Wealth is increasingly being transferred to the millennial generation—a cohort deeply attuned to technology, artificial intelligence, and impact. Moving beyond traditional ETF investing, they seek to create meaningful change through their capital.
 
 This book addresses the urgent need for a comprehensive guide to investing in private markets. It explores how these markets differ from conventional models, outlines strategies for success, and explains how to actively contribute to the democratization of finance.
 For savvy investors, understanding due diligence, risk management, deal scouting, &nbsp;using intelligence like AI and machine learning while shifting the focus to a balance of impact and return is essential. At the core of pricing negotiations lie valuation models, which are critical as democratized investing requires individuals to act as market makers, valuation creators, and custodians of the assets they support. A new age of market building and market stewardship is looming.This book equips readers with the essential concepts they need to navigate intelligent private markets of the future. Topics such as impact investing, green fintech, investing into longevity and life science and stakeholder strategies are examined in depth, highlighting their integration into a long-term, lifecycle investment approach.Perfect for finance professionals, aspiring leaders, and anyone interested in the evolving world of private markets, democratization, and impact investing, this book is a tribute to the power of diversity and the vital role of active ownership in shaping the future of finance.

Angel Investing, Company Valuation, and the New Rules of Scouting, Risk, and Due Diligence

The Private Market Playbook

Geopolitical realignment, climate disruption, demographic shifts, and technological transformation present risks with no historical precedent. Pension systems are breaking under the weight of aging populations. Semiconductor production concentrates in a single geopolitical flashpoint. AI is reshaping everything from energy demand to the future of work to the waging of war.&nbsp;
These are not future risks. They exist now. Yet our current approaches toward risk cannot see them, leaving institutions exposed when these transformations strike.&nbsp;
This open access book presents a fundamental reimagining of how we manage risk. It demonstrates that material risks cannot be reduced to statistics or confined to financial markets. They are rooted in the physical world: supply chains, demographic realities, geography, and human behavior.&nbsp;
The transformation occurs across five dimensions:&nbsp;
Financial to Physical
Material constraints drive markets, not the reverse.&nbsp;
Statistical to Structural
Dependencies matter more than correlations.&nbsp;
Static to Dynamic
Systems adapt as participants respond to them.&nbsp;
Mechanical to Human
Interpretation, reflexivity, and contingency shape outcomes.&nbsp;
Numbers to Narratives
Decisions happen in conversations, not spreadsheets.&nbsp;
Essential reading for chief risk officers, asset owners and allocators, policymakers and anyone responsible for navigating risks that are reshaping economies and societies.

Geopolitical realignment, climate disruption, demographic shifts, and technological transformation present risks with no historical precedent. Pension systems are breaking under the weight of aging populations. Semiconductor production concentrates in a single geopolitical flashpoint. AI is reshaping everything from energy demand to the future of work to the waging of war.These are not future risks. They exist now. Yet traditional models cannot see them; historical market returns offer no guidance. Worse, they create false confidence that leaves institutions exposed when transformation strikes.This open access book presents a re-conception of how we think about and manage risk. Drawing on the author's experience as chief risk officer at major financial institutions, it demonstrates that risk cannot be reduced to statistics or confined to financial markets. It emerges from physical structure and unfolds through dynamics that cannot be reduced to equations.The transformation occurs across five dimensions:
 Financial → Physical
 
 Material constraints drive markets, not the reverse.
 
 Statistical → Structural
 
 Dependencies matter more than correlations.
 
 Static → Dynamic
 
 Systems adapt as participants respond to them.
 
 Mechanical → Human
 
 Interpretation, reflexivity, and contingency shape outcomes.
 
 Numbers → Narratives
 
 Decisions happen in conversations, not spreadsheets.
 Simple, adaptive rules outperform sophisticated optimization. Narrative reasoning—whether through discussion, scenario analysis, or tools like large language models—produces more actionable intelligence than mathematical models when confronting unprecedented change.This book is essential reading for chief risk officers, asset allocators, family offices, policymakers and anyone responsible for navigating risks that are reshaping economies and societies.

Decisions in the Face of Material Events

A Risk Manifesto

NATIONAL BESTSELLER An insightful discussion of the seven immutable principles that power financial prosperity&nbsp; In the newly revised and expanded second edition of The Strategic Millionaire: Seven Laws of Wealth The Rich Don't Tell You, veteran financial technology leader Armando Pantoja challenges the conventional mindsets that prioritize instant gratification and embrace immediate rewards in favor of strategies that emphasize long-term decision making, foresight, and calculated risk taking.&nbsp; Pantoja explains how you can recognize emerging trends before they become mainstream and capitalize on opportunities early. He walks you through how to cultivate a mindset of abundance, build diverse networks, and invest in income-generating assets.&nbsp; You'll also find:&nbsp; <ul> <li>Strategies to build a balanced lifestyle that incorporates rest and collaboration&nbsp;</li> <li>Ways to build sustained productivity and progress toward realistic and ambitious financial goals&nbsp;</li> <li>Careful and clear discussions of the practical, hands-on laws that enable sustainable financial success&nbsp;</li> </ul> Perfect for entrepreneurs, founders, and other business leaders, The Strategic Millionaire is also a must-read for investors, traders, finance and tech enthusiasts, and anyone else interested in building a financially prosperous future.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Seven Laws of Wealth the Rich Don't Tell You

The Strategic Millionaire, Expanded Edition

Providing students and industry managers with the knowledge, skills, and abilities to effectively manage the security of transportation assets, Introduction to Transportation Security, Second Edition examines:<ul> <li>The core concepts of security, safety, and emergency management practices</li> </ul><ul> <li>The integrated nature of the U.S.critical infrastructure and the threats to intermodal transportation</li> </ul><ul> <li>Those federal agencies working in emergency management, hazmat response, and transportation security and their intelligence and response requirements and capabilities</li> </ul><ul> <li>Cost-beneficial security strategies aimed at preventing catastrophic failures from disasters or intentional sabotage or attack in each transportation mode</li> </ul>Transportation is the lifeline of any nation, connecting people, supporting the economy, and facilitating the delivery of vital goods and services. Past failures and terrorist attacks on such transportation systems, in the U.S. and abroad, have demonstrated such systems' vulnerability, the consequences of any potential damage and disruption, as well as the substantial impacts on people, property, and the economy. Now, more than ever, it has become imperative for public transit and transportation systems, as well as the many private businesses operating in these sectors, to develop comprehensive security programs. This includes accounting for both natural and man-made hazards-and safeguarding people, places, and equipment-while at the same time ensuring operations continuity.The book covers all transportation critical infrastructure-their modes and their interconnectivity-including highway, air, freight and passenger rail, transit, maritime, and pipeline security. Chapters provide learning objectives, key words, and discussion questions pedagogical elements as well as several case studies to facilitate a practical understanding of the concepts presented. New to this edition is a chapter dedicated to gas and oil pipelines as well as an increased focus throughout of recent cyberattacks, to emphasize the need for physical and cybersecurity integration.Introduction to Transportation Security, Second Edition serves as a comprehensive, practical overview for students in transportation management, homeland security, and emergency management programs as well as an up-to-date reference for professionals charged with safeguarding the movement of assets within our interconnected transportation network.

Introduction to Transportation Security

This is a comprehensive guide to measuring the performance of the Chinese economy in historical context, bridging the gap between economic methods and economic history to showcase the cutting edge of quantitative Chinese economic history research.
The book brings together contributions from active scholars working in the area, integrating perspectives and methods from economics, history, and the digital humanities. It shows how Chinese economic history has become an increasingly interdisciplinary field over the past two decades, one that has increasingly adopted economic concepts and methodologies while maintaining a strong qualitative research tradition. The book sheds light on new data sources, methodologies and debates in Chinese economic history research while spanning core topics including taxation, land property, rural economy, population, gross domestic product, wage, lineage, and urbanisation. Chapters survey with unprecedented depth and breadth in current literature how economic data in Chinese history were generated, processed, and utilized byboth the state and the private sector. This volume is expected to help students better identify emerging types of historical data, how to make meaningful use of them, and gain deeper insights into the early modern and modern economic history of China.
Peng&nbsp;Kaixiang is Professor of Economics at Wuhan University, China. His research examines the long-term performance of the economy and the evolution of market institutions in China, with a particular focus on prices, finance, and market dynamics in Ming and Qing periods.
Liu Ziang&nbsp;is Research Associate at Lau China Institute, King's Collge London, UK. His expertise lies in labour, wages, and long-run living standards in early modern and modern China as well as state capacity and the history of quantification.

Data, Methods, and Limits

Measuring the Early Modern and Modern Chinese Economy

Fire Safety Law and Practice provides a comprehensive and authoritative overview of the legislative framework that governs fire safety in England and Wales. Taking into account the significant amendments that have followed the tragic events of Grenfell Tower, it explains who is subject to duties under the order and what those duties are. It then deals with enforcement, covering the duties on enforcing authorities and the investigatory powers available to them, before looking at both the bringing of criminal proceedings and the powers to issue alteration, prohibition and enforcement notices. Accessible to both those new to the field and experienced legal practitioners, and to fire safety inspectors as well as risk assessors, it serves not only as a reference work, but also provides a detailed practical guide for those working in this area on a daily basis. This title is included in Bloomsbury Professional's Company and Commercial Law online service.

Fire Safety Law and Practice

Build an AI security operating model that manages risk, strengthens governance and enables AI to scale securely. AI Risk Management is a practical guide for AI risk owners, GRC managers, AI governance managers and technology risk professionals responsible for managing the security risks of AI.Written by security expert Rafah Knight, this book shows how to make AI security operational, measurable and embedded into existing business processes. It provides practical guidance on establishing ownership and accountability for AI risk, designing effective governance structures, implementing policies and controls and managing third-party AI vendor exposure.Drawing on real-world examples from financial services, retail, the public sector and healthcare, learn how to: - Build an effective AI security operating model - Establish clear ownership and accountability for AI risk - Design AI governance policies, controls and assurance processes - Measure AI security and operational risks effectively - Manage third-party AI vendor exposure at scaleAI Security gives you the practical structures and controls to operationalize AI assurance, strengthen AI governance and support secure AI adoption at scale.Themes include: AI security, AI risk management, AI governance, GRC, AI assurance, third-party AI risk

How to Scale AI Securely

AI Risk Management

Advanced Risk Metrics

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