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Asian Development Bank: Asian
Development Outlook April 2026

Asian Development Outlook April 2026

The Middle East Conflict Challenges Resilience in Asia and the Pacific

VALUE, LABOR AND CAPITAL

Theoretical and Policy Perspectives

Social and Behavioural Macroeconomics

The Surprising Truth About How Money Works

Money: The Inside Story

The Future in Our Past tells the remarkable story of Britain’s only ever General Strike on its centenary. It is an on-the-ground account of how workers brought the country to a standstill for nine extraordinary days. Callum Cant and Matthew Lee take us on a journey through a Britain living on its nerves, from the London docklands to the South Wales coalfields and the railways and warehouses of middle England. They compare the struggles of 1926 with those of workers in these same communities today. We meet a Bangladeshi courier involved in wildcat strikes on the Isle of Dogs. The great grandson of a Welsh miner facing redundancy at the blast furnaces of Port Talbot. This is social history at its most immediate and relevant. Churchill feared that labour militancy presaged a Bolshevik-style revolution. But for socialists, dreams of a brighter future would have to wait. Cant and Matthew Lee ask why this monumental standoff ended in defeat for the unions despite their huge mobilisation. They set out why the General Strike still matters and the lessons it has for us.

The General Strike, 1926/2026

The Future in our Past

Elements in European Politics

This Element argues that the 2008 financial crisis marked a turning point for populism in Europe by extending economic insecurity to the middle class. As insecurity spread, trust in institutions and markets declined, bringing a large new group of disillusioned voters into the political arena. The authors show that this expansion of middle-class anxiety accounts for a substantial share of the rise in populist voting. The political impact was strongest in countries with limited fiscal space, where governments lacked credible tools to cushion economic losses. As voters' demand for protection grew, both new and established parties adjusted their platforms, with populist and protectionist positions becoming more prominent. Using a novel empirical strategy based on differences in occupational exposure to financial constraints, the authors identify the causal effect of crisis-driven insecurity and explain why populism has persisted in European politics. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.

The Financial Drivers of Populism in Europe

What people believe about the economy—and why it matters How do expectations about the future influence economic behavior? For decades, economists have known that beliefs play a central role—from how much households spend, to how firms set prices, to how central banks design policy. But figuring out exactly how expectations affect decisions has been one of the field’s most persistent empirical challenges. In this book, Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko present a fresh empirical approach: using randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to study the causal impact of expectations. Drawing on more than a decade of their research, they show how targeted information treatments can generate experimental variation in beliefs—making it possible to measure how those beliefs influence real-world decisions. Along the way, they reassess the limits of the traditional rational expectations framework and offer a richer, evidence-based picture of how people form and act on their views about the economy. Blending the credibility of field experiments with the big-picture questions of macroeconomics, the authors provide a clear, practical guide to this new methodology—from survey design to implementation to measuring how beliefs pass through into behavior. While much of the book focuses on inflation expectations, later chapters explore how this approach sheds light on the role of uncertainty in firm and household decision making, the influence of expectations on financial behavior, and how peer effects shape household spending. For economists and social scientists alike, this book offers a new lens on how beliefs work—and why they matter.

The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments

Expectations Matter

World Scientific Lecture Notes In Economics And Policy

This book offers a comprehensive introduction to advanced macroeconomic theory, designed specifically to bridge the gap between intermediate undergraduate courses and graduate-level study. It provides master's and advanced undergraduate students with analytical tools and theoretical frameworks for understanding modern macroeconomic modeling.The exposition begins with consumption and production theory in static and dynamic settings, establishing the microeconomic foundations for rigorous macroeconomic analysis. The book then examines key mechanisms driving macroeconomic fluctuations, covering labor market frictions through search and matching models and efficiency wage theory, the role of money through the cash-in-advance model, and investment dynamics with adjustment costs.Considerable attention is devoted to growth theory and macroeconomic dynamics. The presentation moves from the Solow model through various endogenous growth frameworks, including models emphasizing physical and human capital accumulation. The Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model and the overlapping generations framework are developed in detail, with particular emphasis on dynamic efficiency and welfare analysis across generations. The book concludes with an introduction to real business cycle theory, presenting the basic model structure and analyzing responses to economic shocks.Throughout, the book emphasizes intuition alongside formal analysis. Derivations are presented carefully, and detailed exercises help students develop both technical skills and economic understanding. These notes are intended for students seeking stronger preparation for doctoral study or a deeper understanding of macroeconomic theory for policy analysis and research applications.

Lecture Notes On Advanced Macroeconomic Theory

A deep exploration of the opportunities and risks a global digital economy poses for refugees. Digital Exiles opens a rare window into the world of refugees trying to survive and thrive in an increasingly digitalized and technological world of work. Often excluded from local employment and struggling to make ends meet, refugees are increasingly dependent on digital jobs and online work as a financial lifeline. Andreas Hackl offers a human-centered and global perspective to these struggles through his research into three of the most important refugee-hosting countries: Lebanon, Kenya, and Germany. The pursuit of a digital livelihood—from attending coding schools in Berlin to training datasets for AI in crisis-stricken Lebanon to online freelancing in Kenya’s refugee camps—represents an increasingly important income opportunity for refugees. Digital work programs by aid organizations and the private sector aim to help the forcibly displaced become self-reliant and successful workers, yet, for many, it creates new forms of exclusion, precarity, and risk. Combining human stories with insights from five years of multisited research and applied work with leading organizations, the author presents an alternative vision of an inclusive world of work that can help shape the fair digital economy of the future.

Refugee Work in the Global Digital Economy

Digital Exiles

Strategic lessons for monetary policy from the last two tumultuous decades based on insights from Sun Tzu, the Chinese philosopher and author of The Art of War. When central banks were forced to innovate and develop a multifaceted set of new weapons in response to the 2008 global financial crisis and 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, the result was a substantial expansion in their authority and reach. In The Art of Monetary Policy, Kristin Forbes draws lessons for monetary policy of the last two decades from the principles of Sun Tzu, the author of The Art of War, a Chinese philosopher and military strategist from the fifth century BC. Tzu proposed several key principles for success—tenets that apply to monetary policy and the battlefield today: (1) plan in advance for the next battle; (2) accept and adapt to the inevitability of powerful, external shocks outside your control; (3) establish a strong tactical position; (4) develop a variety of weapons that can be combined for different maneuvers and situations; (5) maintain flexibility so that you can quickly modify your strategy; and (6) consider the longer-term costs when evaluating the trade-offs of different approaches. These principles provide insights into what central banks did (and did not) do well over the last two decades, as well as how they should deploy interest rates, balance sheets, emergency support programs, forward guidance, and macroprudential tools in the future. While the optimal strategy in both war and monetary policy is more of an “art” than a science, adopting these principles can improve our ability to battle the next crisis and build more resilient economies during peaceful periods.

Lessons from Sun Tzu for Central Banks

The Art of Monetary Policy

Acclaimed economist James K. Galbraith sounds an urgent alarm: how conventional economic ideas and policies are unequipped to account for the most daunting challenges of our geopolitical moment.Amid a mounting sense of American decline, Americans live with a new kind of dissonance: economists announcing that everything is fundamentally fine. Where growth is steady, unemployment is low, prices are (somewhat) stable, and stocks are high--what's there to worry about? The Power to Destroy shows that this dissonance reflects a failure to evolve. James K. Galbraith's incisive history of economic policy in this century is grounded in the fundamental problem that today's experts are still deploying tools from all yesterday's wars: obsolete economic ideas, measures, and doctrines focused on market functioning and crude economic indicators like output and prices. These methods, many of them honed a century ago against a vastly different social landscape, offer little hope in the face of today's more existential threats. Such conventional policies, Galbraith argues, are increasingly ill-equipped to counter the daunting challenges of our moment--from inflation to trade sanctions, industrial cold wars, and climate change--and, left unacknowledged, are accelerating the end of the US economy as we know it. Shortcomings include the weak responses to the inflation of 2021-2022; the sanctions war against Russia; the rise of China; the weak and ineffective attempt at industrial revival; and the impending demographic crisis. All have roots in a flawed body of outdated economic thought that has been sustained for ideological rather than practical reasons. They now promise to hinder the United States in the emerging multipolar world. As Galbraith makes plain, for all the virtues of the market system, governments and their policies make markets possible. The ideas behind the policies--for better or worse--will determine the fate of the US economy--and new and better ideas are urgently needed. The alternative--sticking with economic ideas and policies we know and currently use--brings the power to destroy us all.

How Bad Economics Drove America’s Decline

The Power to Destroy

'Informative, lively and consistently engaging' Financial Times Join the Bank of England on a surprising and entertaining tour through how money really works - and why it's rarely the way you think . . . Most of us think about money every day. But how many of us understand it? Every morning, someone unassumingly types numbers into a spreadsheet, hits enter and creates millions of pounds. Somewhere deep underground, a machine most of us will never see props up the entire British economy. And hidden in a vault nearby are individual banknotes worth £100 million each. These are just some of the surprising truths about how money works. The Bank of England know more about the money system than most - after all, it is their job to keep it running smoothly. Now, for the first time, two of its economists take you deep into their vaults to tell you the inside story of money. They explain how ordinary banks are able to create money from scratch, and what stops that descending into chaos. They explore what causes inflation and why one country tried to solve rising prices by asking its citizens to cut all banknotes in half. They uncover how a baby hippo briefly became a global currency, and what that says about the future of money. And they reveal what goes on inside the Bank of England during a banking crisis, and why it means your money is safer now than ever before. Along the way, they explore how money is changing today - and what new technologies like crypto mean for its future. The result is a lively and surprising guide to how money is supposed to work, what happens when it doesn't, and where it might be going next.

Asian Development Outlook April 2026

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