All Swans Are Black

A powerful handbook for thriving financially and personally in an age of political and technological volatility.

The old playbook is dead. We have entered an era defined by non-linear dynamics, where AI startups outpace trillion-dollar giants and Bitcoin reshapes financial reality overnight. In All Swans Are Black, economic historian Dror Poleg argues that unpredictable, high-impact events are no longer the exception, but the rule.

Through engaging stories from across the world, Poleg explains how the shift from tangible factories to intangible assets like software and stories has fractured the relationship between effort and reward. To navigate this chaos, he provides a practical toolkit for a brave new world where nobody really knows anything:

• Leave slack: Maintain flexibility to survive downturns while staying ready for sudden upside.
• Make asymmetrical bets: Lean toward actions where the cost of failure is low but the potential reward is uncapped.
• Find patterns: Stop overanalysing why things happen and start identifying the recurring patterns that actually drive results.
• Stay hungry: Assume that whatever helped you get ahead today will not be enough to keep you there tomorrow.

Blending rigorous research with his experience as a combat veteran, executive and tech founder, Poleg shows you how to stop trying to predict the future, and instead learn to start flourishing within its uncertainty.