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Droste F: Die Zwei-Säulen-Strategie der
Europäischen Zentralbank

Die Zwei-Säulen-Strategie der Europäischen Zentralbank

Eine modelltheoretische sowie simulationsgestützte Betrachtung

Bachelor Thesis from the year 2026 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 90/100, IE University (School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs), course: Bachelor in Economics, language: English, abstract: This paper develops and tests a wealth-channel framework for the transmission of monetary policy to art-market prices. Using an original dataset from the Artprice Econometrics Department, we examine quarterly returns on the Artprice Global Index from 1998Q1 through 2026Q1. We also analyze four art-historical segment indices at annual frequency from 2000 through 2024. Based on this dataset, we estimate a five-layer architecture. This includes baseline OLS with Newey-West HAC standard errors, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) specification, a Baron-Kenny mediation test, threshold regressions for regime dependence, and a segment-level decomposition. The Federal Reserve top-1% wealth share (FRED: WFRBST01134) is adopted as the primary wealth proxy because it is theoretically aligned with the hypothesis that ultra-high-net-worth collectors are the marginal buyers and because it strictly excludes household art holdings, removing the construction-endogeneity concern that affects the Z.1 net-worth series. We argue that expansionary monetary policy raises the wealth of these collectors, whose deferred consignment and bidding decisions feed into auction prices with a six- to eighteen-month lag anchored in the biannual auction calendar. Identification rests on a structural micro-foundation, a falsifiable lag prediction confirmed by the ARDL coefficient pattern and by practitioner testimony, and a natural-experiment test against the 2022 to 2024 Federal Reserve tightening cycle. The Layer 1 baseline yields a wealth coefficient of +3.68 (HAC SE 1.39, p = 0.016), rising to +4.44 (p = 0.002) when high-influence years are excluded. The annual ARDL(1,1) long-run multiplier on the policy rate is -5.36 (p = 0.045) and on the top-1% wealth share is +3.70 (p = 0.019); at quarterly frequency (T = 106), the long-run wealth multiplier rises to +14.44 (p = 0.003). The expansion-regime wealth coefficient of +4.72 (p = 0.002) supports asymmetric transmission, although the formal regime-independence rejection is fragile under cleaner specifications. The Baron-Kenny test fails to reject the null of no mediation at annual frequency, reflecting a weak first stage even though the second-stage wealth-art coefficient is significant at the 5% level. The out-of-sample model predicts the cumulative 2022 to 2024 drawdown within one to three percentage points. [...]

Identification and regime heterogeneity

The wealth channel of monetary policy in the global art market

Phenomenal World Books

A critical history of the US dollar's dominance in the world economy--and what has kept China's currency from overtaking it. The dollar is the primary currency of the world economy. With China now rivaling the United States on the world stage, a critical question hangs in the balance: will the Chinese renminbi challenge the status of the dollar and, in doing so, deprive America of its "exorbitant privilege"? In GreenbackEmpire, Ho-fung Hung offers a powerful account of why, even as American shares of global production, ownership, and trade continue to decline, its currency has retained the support of governments and investors around the world. For six decades, Hung shows, the dominance of the dollar has rested on the security umbrella that the US offers to the world's wealthiest countries--including oil producers. To these countries, support for the value of the dollar is tantamount to maintaining US protection. While China has become a serious geopolitical and economic rival to the US, the Chinese state's airtight control of its financial system has delayed the free trading of the renminbi, limiting the currency's internationalization. In short, the same strategy that engineered growth in China's economy is restraining its currency's rise in opposition to the dollar. Hung's Greenback Empire is an essential history of the dollar's prowess, indispensable for understanding the future of the global monetary system.

Global Dollar Dominance and the New Cold War

Greenback Empire

Acclaimed economist James K. Galbraith sounds an urgent alarm: how conventional economic ideas and policies are unequipped to account for the most daunting challenges of our geopolitical moment.Amid a mounting sense of American decline, Americans live with a new kind of dissonance: economists announcing that everything is fundamentally fine. Where growth is steady, unemployment is low, prices are (somewhat) stable, and stocks are high--what's there to worry about? The Power to Destroy shows that this dissonance reflects a failure to evolve. James K. Galbraith's incisive history of economic policy in this century is grounded in the fundamental problem that today's experts are still deploying tools from all yesterday's wars: obsolete economic ideas, measures, and doctrines focused on market functioning and crude economic indicators like output and prices. These methods, many of them honed a century ago against a vastly different social landscape, offer little hope in the face of today's more existential threats. Such conventional policies, Galbraith argues, are increasingly ill-equipped to counter the daunting challenges of our moment--from inflation to trade sanctions, industrial cold wars, and climate change--and, left unacknowledged, are accelerating the end of the US economy as we know it. Shortcomings include the weak responses to the inflation of 2021-2022; the sanctions war against Russia; the rise of China; the weak and ineffective attempt at industrial revival; and the impending demographic crisis. All have roots in a flawed body of outdated economic thought that has been sustained for ideological rather than practical reasons. They now promise to hinder the United States in the emerging multipolar world. As Galbraith makes plain, for all the virtues of the market system, governments and their policies make markets possible. The ideas behind the policies--for better or worse--will determine the fate of the US economy--and new and better ideas are urgently needed. The alternative--sticking with economic ideas and policies we know and currently use--brings the power to destroy us all.

How Bad Economics Drove America’s Decline

The Power to Destroy

The Surprising Truth About How Money Works

Money: The Inside Story

“If you read just one book about economics, make it Andrew Leigh's clear, insightful, and remarkable (and short) work.” —Claudia Goldin, recipient of the 2023 Nobel Prize in Economics and Henry Lee Professor of Economics at Harvard UniversityA sweeping, engrossing history of how economic forces have shaped the world—all in under 200 pagesOne of The Economist's Best Books of the YearIn How Economics Explains the World, Harvard-trained economist Andrew Leigh presents a new way to understand the human story. From the dawn of agriculture to AI, here is story of how ingenuity, greed, and desire for betterment have, to an astonishing degree, determined our past, present, and future.&nbsp;This small book indeed tells a big story. It is the story of capitalism – of how our market system developed. It is the story of the discipline of economics, and some of the key figures who formed it. And it is the story of how economic forces have shaped world history. Why didn’t Africa colonize Europe instead of the other way around? What happened when countries erected trade and immigration barriers in the 1930s? Why did the Allies win World War II? Why did inequality in many advanced countries fall during the 1950s and 1960s? How did property rights drive China’s growth surge in the 1980s? How does climate change threaten our future prosperity? You’ll find answers to these questions and more in How Economics Explains the World.“Can a short book survey the full history of something so vast and remain readable? To find out, read How Economics Explains the World, by Andrew Leigh. In simple, clear language—and less than 200 pages—it does exactly what its title promises. … Leigh canters through the history of human progress, pausing briefly to explain the economic forces and ideas that drove it forward. … Along the way, readers meet the big economic thinkers who sought to explain these forces. Both finance aficionados and mere novices will read, savour and return to this book.” –The Economist, “The Best New Books to Read about Finance”

“If you read just one book about economics, make it Andrew Leigh's clear, insightful, and remarkable (and short) work.” —Claudia Goldin, recipient of the 2023 Nobel Prize in Economics and Henry Lee Professor of Economics at Harvard UniversityA sweeping, engrossing history of how economic forces have shaped the world—all in under 200 pagesOne of The Economist's Best Books of the YearIn How Economics Explains the World, Harvard-trained economist Andrew Leigh presents a new way to understand the human story. From the dawn of agriculture to AI, here is story of how ingenuity, greed, and desire for betterment have, to an astonishing degree, determined our past, present, and future.&nbsp;This small book indeed tells a big story. It is the story of capitalism – of how our market system developed. It is the story of the discipline of economics, and some of the key figures who formed it. And it is the story of how economic forces have shaped world history. Why didn’t Africa colonize Europe instead of the other way around? What happened when countries erected trade and immigration barriers in the 1930s? Why did the Allies win World War II? Why did inequality in many advanced countries fall during the 1950s and 1960s? How did property rights drive China’s growth surge in the 1980s? How does climate change threaten our future prosperity? You’ll find answers to these questions and more in How Economics Explains the World.“Can a short book survey the full history of something so vast and remain readable? To find out, read How Economics Explains the World, by Andrew Leigh. In simple, clear language—and less than 200 pages—it does exactly what its title promises. … Leigh canters through the history of human progress, pausing briefly to explain the economic forces and ideas that drove it forward. … Along the way, readers meet the big economic thinkers who sought to explain these forces. Both finance aficionados and mere novices will read, savour and return to this book.” –The Economist, “The Best New Books to Read about Finance”

A Short History of Humanity

How Economics Explains the World

Money Was Never Just About Money
A shrinking samosa.
A silent thief.
A golden goose.
A hungry hippo.
And a secret called the eighth wonder of the world.
This isn't just another story.
When three friends begin asking simple questions about money, they discover a hidden world filled with surprising lessons, strange mysteries, and powerful ideas that quietly shape everyone's lives.
Guided by the unforgettable Mr. Smith and his legendary socks, Jasmine, Emma, and Arjun slowly uncover truths most people spend a lifetime trying to understand.
Packed with humor, adventure, and real-world wisdom, Junior CEO transforms complicated financial ideas into a journey that is impossible to forget.
Because money was never just about money

Be the CEO of Your Life

Junior CEO

A succinct introduction to the theoretical debate on economic development and stagnation. In this book, André Nassif examines the complexity of economic theory, shaped by the interactions of diverse agents-firms, households, governments, and banks-across various markets. Despite its abstract nature, economic theories can be made accessible through careful explanation. Development and Stagnation covers the main theoretical foundations of economic development and incorporates key contributions from Latin America. Overall, the book offers a comprehensive overview of contemporary debates that critically engages with these theories while maintaining academic rigor.&nbsp;

Development and Stagnation

'Informative, lively and consistently engaging' Financial Times Join the Bank of England on a surprising and entertaining tour through how money really works - and why it's rarely the way you think . . . Most of us think about money every day. But how many of us understand it? Every morning, someone unassumingly types numbers into a spreadsheet, hits enter and creates millions of pounds. Somewhere deep underground, a machine most of us will never see props up the entire British economy. And hidden in a vault nearby are individual banknotes worth £100 million each. These are just some of the surprising truths about how money works. The Bank of England know more about the money system than most - after all, it is their job to keep it running smoothly. Now, for the first time, two of its economists take you deep into their vaults to tell you the inside story of money. They explain how ordinary banks are able to create money from scratch, and what stops that descending into chaos. They explore what causes inflation and why one country tried to solve rising prices by asking its citizens to cut all banknotes in half. They uncover how a baby hippo briefly became a global currency, and what that says about the future of money. And they reveal what goes on inside the Bank of England during a banking crisis, and why it means your money is safer now than ever before. Along the way, they explore how money is changing today - and what new technologies like crypto mean for its future. The result is a lively and surprising guide to how money is supposed to work, what happens when it doesn't, and where it might be going next.

Contributions to Economics

This book is of interest to economists working in applied demand analysis, marketing professionals studying product substitution and complementarity, and policymakers evaluating the effects of taxes, subsidies, and regulatory interventions on consumer behavior. Applying the analytical framework on the internal structure of consumption, this book explores how different categories of consumer spending interact and how these relationships shape the broader structure of consumption.The analyses focus on timely and policy-relevant issues, including the distributional impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, the implementation of safe drinking water standards (with particular attention to low-income households), and the potential effects of carbon taxes on consumer expenditures.A key strength of the framework lies in its ability to derive comprehensive arrays of own- and cross-price elasticities from household expenditure survey data—even in the absence of direct price information.

Impacts of Price Elasticities, Saving, and Inflation

Studies in the Internal Structure of Consumption

An award-winning economic journalist on why the US dollar is positioned to maintain global primacy—and what that means for America and the world &nbsp; “Magisterial.”—Edward Chancellor, Reuters &nbsp; Prophecies that the dollar will lose its status as the world’s dominant currency have echoed for decades—and are increasing in volume. Cryptocurrency enthusiasts claim that Bitcoin or other blockchain-based monetary units will replace the dollar. Foreign policy hawks warn that China’s renminbi poses a lethal threat to the greenback. And sound money zealots predict that mounting US debt and inflation will surely erode the dollar’s value to the point of irrelevancy. &nbsp; Contra the doomsayers, Paul Blustein shows that the dollar’s standing atop the world’s currency pyramid is impregnable, barring catastrophic policy missteps by the US government. Recounting how the United States has wielded the dollar to impose devastating sanctions against adversaries, Blustein explains that although targets such as Russia have found ways to limit the damage, Washington’s financial weaponry will retain potency long into the future. His message, however, is that America must not be complacent about the dollar; the great power that its supremacy confers comes with commensurate responsibility.

The Past and Future of the World's Dominant Currency

King Dollar

A bold retelling of the story of capitalism that treats the core concepts of economics as living, breathing beings, blending fiction and fact to upend 250 years of economic orthodoxy. For a quarter of a millennium, Adam Smith’s invisible hand, ghostly and bloodied, has written the script of our lives. Everyman makes the ethereal ink in which it is etched legible by embodying the solitary, self-interested homo economicus—or “rational actor”—as Neo. Told as an imaginative novel, Everyman traces global capitalism’s arc from boom to bust through Neo and his reckless apostles: Finn, the archetypal finance bro; Davos, the ambassador of globalization; Wash, the envoy to distant lands; and Tek, the quintessence of the tech industry. In a dazzling saga spanning generations and continents, Neo’s epic journey takes us from Chicago to New York to London, from Wall Street to Burning Man, from the factories of the Rust Belt to the farmlands of India, introducing us to the economic minds and political figures who have shaped our world, everyday people, and even runaway monsters. An entertaining magical realist romp, Everyman touches on the most significant economic events in global history, from the Great Depression to the 2008 Financial Crisis, Britain’s Brexit vote to the inexorable rise of populism globally. Drawing on moral psychology, philosophy, evolutionary biology, and beyond, it animates the possibilities for how we might build on our capacity for cooperation to reinvent our broken institutions—and ourselves. By breaking form to ignite our moral imaginations, it presents a vision for rewriting our modern-day mythology, our economic theory. Everyman asks: by recasting economics strawman protagonist as a flesh-and-blood character, can we turn the plot of our lives from an inevitable tragedy to a redemption story and alter the destiny of our civilization?

The Untold Story of Economics

Everyman

Die Zwei-Säulen-Strategie der Europäischen Zentralbank

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